Flamengo vs Velez Sarsfield Match Analysis and Prediction

2 years ago 587

Flamengo will be looking to make it to the final of the Copa Libertadores for a third time in the last four years as they play host to Velez Sarsfield at the Maracana on Wednesday.

The hosts were 4-0 winners in the opening leg of this semi-final, their seventh straight victory at this year’s competition, while Velez lost their first Libertadores game since falling 2-1 at home to Nacional on matchday three.

Another outstanding performance in the knockout stage has Flamengo on the verge of a return trip to the final of this competition, conceding just once since the last 16, posting three straight clean sheets.

Following a challenging debut to his third spell as manager of the club, losing three of his first four games in charge, Dorival Junior has dramatically transformed their fortunes, with Mengao losing just one of their last 21 matches across all competitions.

No teams has managed to defeat Flamengo at the famous Maracana on over three months, with their last home defeat coming in the Brasileiro Serie A on June 5, when an injury-time goal from Hercules gave Fortaleza a narrow 2-1 victory.

Meanwhile, Velez Sarsfield will need a lot of magic to pull off another upset at this competition, though their past history at the 2022 Libertadores suggests it might be possible.

In need of a win in their final group stage game to guarantee progression into the knockout round, Velez pulled off a huge 4-0 victory over Estudiantes, while this Tuesday will mark one year since they defeated Union by that same score in a domestic game.

That defeat to Flamengo in the opening leg last week was El Fortin’s worst defeat in a competitive match since falling to a 7-1 defeat domestically at the hands of Boca Juniors in March 2021.

Flamengo vs Velez Sarsfield head to head

The two teams have prevously met on just three occasions in the Copa Libertadores, where Flamengo have claimed two victories while they have drawn once. Flamengo have scored seven goals and conceded two in the process.

Velez Sarsfield 2-3 Flamengo 21/04/21

Flamengo 0-0 Velez Sarsfield 28/05/21

Velez Sarsfield 0-4 Flamengo 01/09/22

Flamengo latest home form

Flamengo have recently been on a good run of form at home, having been unbeaten in their 11 most recent matches. They played out a 1-1 draw with Ceara in their last home game in the league. In their last five matches, they have scored 11 goals and conceded just two.

Flamengo 0-0 Athletico Paranaense 28/07/22

Flamengo 4-1 Atletico Goianiense 31/07/22

Flamengo 1-0 Corinthians 10/08/22

Flamengo 5-0 Athletico Paranaense 14/08/22

Flamengo 1-1 Ceara 04/09/22

Flamengo latest away form

Flamengo have recently been on a good run of form on the road, having been unbeaten in their eight most recent matches. They defeated Velez Sarsfield 4-0 in their last away game in the Copa Libertadores. In their last five matches, they have scored 10 goals and conceded just two.

Athletico Paranaense 0-1 Flamengo 18/08/22

Palmeiras 1-1 Flamengo 21/08/22

Sao Paulo 1-3 Flamengo 25/08/22

Botafogo 0-1 Flamengo 29/08/22

Velez Sarsfield 0-4 Flamengo 01/09/22

Velez Sarsfield latest home form

Velez Sarsfield have recently failed to keep a good run of form at home, having won just one of their eight most recent matches. They lost 1-0 to Newell’s Old Boys in their last home game in the league. In their last five matches, they have scored five goals and conceded nine.

Velez Sarsfield 3-2 Talleres de Cordoba 04/08/22

Velez Sarsfield 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata 14/08/22

Velez Sarsfield 1-1 Sarmiento 23/08/22

Velez Sarsfield 0-4 Flamengo 01/09/22

Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Newell’s Old Boys 03/09/22

Velez Sarsfield latest away form

Velez Sarsfield have recently failed to keep a good run of form on the road, having won just one of their five most recent matches. They drew 1-1 with Independiente in their last away game in the league. In their last five matches, they have scored six goals and conceded seven.

Godoy Cruz 1-1 Velez Sarsfield 30/07/22

Union 2-1 Velez Sarsfield 07/08/22

Talleres de Cordoba 0-1 Velez Sarsfield 11/08/22

Aldosivi 3-2 Velez Sarsfield 18/08/22

Independiente 1-1 Velez Sarsfield 28/08/22

Flamengo news

Pedro’s hat-trick in the opening leg of this tie put the Flamengo striker up to 11 goals to lead all scored in this competition, with the other tally coming from Everton Ribeiro.

Rodrigo Caio and Bruno Henrique are unlikely to feature in this game through injury, while Giorgian De Arrascaeta is out with a knock.

Velez Sarsfield news

Lucas Janson has been the main contributor for Velez Sarsfield in this tournament, scoring seven times, while Luca Orellano leads them with three assists.

Diego Godin continues to recover from a knee injury, while Tomas Guidara, Fernandez and Agustin Mulet all started against Newell’s Old Boys, and Orellano relegated to the bench.

Prediction and Odds

Flamengo have never lost a two-legged semi-final in this tournament and have not conceded four goals in a match since a 4-0 domestic defeat to Atletico Mineiro on November 8, 2020.

With the Argentines winless in their last six matches across all competitions, there is every reason to back Mengao for a win.

Odds: 1 1.68 X 2.10 2 2.26