Estonia vs Cyprus Match Analysis and Prediction

5 years ago 744

International underdogs Estonia and Cyprus will be meeting in Tallinn on Thursday to decide their UEFA Nations League fate for the 2022-23 season.

The competition’s first two-legged play-outs will decide which nation will stay in League C and which is placed in Europe’s bottom tier.

With League C constituting four groups while League D is made up of only two, the two teams to be relegated will remain determined over the course of the next week.

While Faroe Islands and Gibraltar have already been promoted from League D, Cyprus(second) will battle it out with the third team of the quartet, Estonia.

Estonians most recently completed their World Cup qualification campaign second-bottom of Group E, with a total of only four points from eight matches.

Estonia’s form in the most recent Nations League was somewhat worse, and only three points collected from six matches saw the Blueshirts finish adrift at the bottom of League C Group 2, forcing them into this two-legged tie for survival.

Ranked just a place above their opponents in FIFA’s global ranking order, Cyprus will enjoy home advantage in next week’s second leg, but first must travel to Tallinn’s A. Le Coq Arena in search of their first victory for nearly a year.

Since defying the odds to defeat Slovenia back in March 2021, eight defeats and a draw have followed, and Cyprus have certainly lost that winning feeling.

A spell of six matches leading up to October’s 2-2 draw with Malta saw Nikos Kostenoglou’s side concede 15 times without scoring, and their most recent run-outs were 6-0 trumping by Russia and a 2-1 defeat against Slovenia to conclude World Cup qualifying.

Avoiding last place in Qualification Group H by virtue of a goal difference than Malta, Cyprus finished rock-bottom of League C Group 1 in the most recent National League.

Estonia vs Cyprus head to head

The two teams have previously met on only eight occasions, where Cyprus are leading with three victories while Estonia have won once, and they have drawn in three. Cyprus have scored 11 goals and conceded eight. In their last five encounters, Estonia have won twice and they have drawn in three.

Cyprus 1-2 Estonia 16/03/99

Cyprus 2-2 Estonia 28/03/01

Estonia 2-2 Cyprus 15/08/01

Cyprus 0-0 Estonia 25/03/17

Estonia 1-0 Cyprus 03/09/17

Estonia latest home form

Estonia have recently failed to keep a good run of form at home, having lost in three of their five most recent matches. In their last home game, they lost 1-0 to Wales in the World Cup Qualification. In their last five matches, they have scored six goals and conceded eight.

Estonia 2-1 Latvia 10/06/21

Estonia 2-5 Belgium 02/09/21

Estonia 0-1 Nothern Ireland 05/09/21

Estonia 2-0 Belarus 08/10/21

Estonia 0-1 Wales 11/10/21

Estonia latest away form

Estonia have recently been on a relatively poor run of form on the road, having failed to win in their three most recent matches. Their last away victory came 1-0 against Finland on June 4 in a friendly game. In their last five, they have scored three goals and conceded five.

Lithuania 0-1 Estonia 01/06/21

Finland 0-1 Estonia 04/06/21

Wales 0-0 Estonia 08/09/21

Belgium 3-1 Estonia 13/11/21

Czech Republic 2-0 Estonia 16/11/21

Cyprus latest home form

Cyprus have recently failed to keep a good run of form at home, as they have won only one of their six most recent matches. Their last home victory came on March 30 when they defeated Slovenia 1-0. In their last five matches, they have scored three goals and conceded seven.

Cyprus 0-0 Slovakia 24/03/21

Cyprus 1-0 Slovenia 30/03/21

Cyprus 0-2 Russia 04/09/21

Cyprus 0-3 Croatia 08/10/21

Cyprus 2-2 Malta 11/10/21

Cyprus latest away form

Cyprus have been on a poor run of form on the road, and have failed to win in any of their ten most recent matches. In their last away game, they lost 2-1 to Slovenia in the World Cup Qualification. In their last five, they have scored only one goal and conceded 17.

Ukraine 4-0 Cyprus 07/06/21

Malta 3-0 Cyprus 01/09/21

Slovakia 2-0 Cyprus 07/09/21

Russia 6-0 Cyprus 11/11/21

Slovenia 2-1 Cyprus 14/11/21

Estonia news

Veteran Konstantin Vassiljev is the leading scorer in the squad on 25 goals from 137 international caps and is expected to start.

Erik Sorga is a more youthful option up front but may have to take a place on the bench if Segei Zenjov is chosen to partner Rauno Sappinen.

Cyprus news

Cyprus have named a 24-player squad for Thursday’s game, which features leading active scorer Pieros Sotiriou, who has 11 international goals to his name.

Midfielder Grigoris Kastanos is also expected to be an influential figure, while Alex Gogic, currently on loan at Hibernian, has been left out of the squad.

Prediction and Odds

Both teams enter the contest as underdogs, and given their lowly status and sparse successes, neither side is likely to take the victory here.

Despite Estonia recently having a relatively better record than their visitors, both sides will want to hold on to the first leg and we expect a draw.

Odds: 1 2.20 X 2.05 2 2.35